JAMMU & KASHMIR - The Return of the Abdullahs

We start of with our analysis of states and union territories with that old problem spot of the Indian Union - J&K. Kashmir has always been a perennial albatross around the union and its election commission. Grenades, bullets, strikes, protests and calls for azadi have been the order of the day. However all that is changing now with new voices emerging from corners of the valley calling for change and repalcing bullet with ballot. Hopefully the state will see a new dawn marked with peace, stability and development.

The voting patterns of this state are generally along predictable lines with the Valley rooting for the kith and kin of the Lion of Kashmir (Sheikh Abdullah) and the Jammu region going the Congress way. However the emergence of the PDP has added a new dimension to the Kashmir valley. It must be said that Mufti and his daughter are more or less restricted to the Militancy prone districts of south Kashmir (Anantnag). Srinagar and northern regions of Kashmir are traditional bastions of the NC. The Jammu region which sends 2 MPs to the lok sabha was once a congress stronghold but the BJP has clearly made inroads into this region picking up both the seats in 1999. However the congress bounced back in style with a clean sweep in 2004. The recent showing of BJP in the assembly polls suggests the party is on a comeback trail. However a repeat of 1999 is unlikely. A split in seats is a likely scenario here. Watch out for the NC trying to poach a seat in the Jammu region.

Barring the sopore incident the the 4 month tenure of young Omar Abdullah has been relatively quiet. Expect the honeymoon factor to favour him in the upcoming general elections. The younger lot will be prone to throw their lot behing Omar. The lone Ladakh seat should also go the NC way.
The seat projection is as follows:-

TOTAL Seats - 6
NC - 3
PDP - 1
Cong - 1
BJP - 1

Only time will tell who comes out on top. A 3+ score for the NC will increase its bargaining power both at the centre as well as the state especially with a section of the separatists showing flexibility for dialogue.

*NC - National Conference

*PDP - People's democratic party