GUJARAT - Modi all the way

Perhaps no man has dominated the scene in a single state this decade the way Narendra Damordas Modi has in Gujarat. Ever since he took charge as the CM of Gujarat in late 2001, He has been in the news for all the right and wrong reasons. While Gujarat has turned into an economic powerhouse under Modi's regime, the state has also witnessed large scale polarization of votes. As long as Modi remains at the helm he will be remembered for both the progress of Gujarat and the riots of 2002 (Both to a large extent the result of a mass hysteria campaign created by the media). Development and riots apart, Gujarat has electorally long been a BJP fortress. The party has won election after election in the last 2 decades and has a vice-like grip over the masses of the state. The riots only enhanced their strength with the majority-community fully endorsing the BJP. Though the congress party has consistently been losing to the BJP, it is still a force in the state unlike UP and Bihar where it has a token presence. It suffers from a lack of charismatic leadership and a jaded party cadre lost and directionless after a string of defeats. In the 2007 assembly polls BJP swept north and south Gujarat, as well as the Kutch and saurashtra regions. The riot torn areas of central Gujarat which the BJP swept in 2002 assembly polls went the congress way providing the GOP some solace. A repeat of the 2007 assembly elections will do nicely for the BJP (49% vote share) which will be looking to make gains in central Gujarat (PM-in-waiting LK Advani contests from Gandhinagar). Trends suggest that the results of 2004 lok sabha polls are unlikely to replicate themselves (remember BJP got just 14 out of 26 then - by its own standards in the state a very small number) and the vidhan sabha poll of 2007 is a more accurate indicator of things to come. Modi seems to have curbed the dissidents to a large extent this time around. Barring any major pre-poll incidents it looks like a walk in the park for Modi and co.

Seat Projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 26
BJP - 21
Cong - 5