KARNATAKA - Encore for the BJP?

Dubbed as its Gateway to the south, The BJP has always taken the coastal Indian state of Karnataka very seriously. After slowly eating into the vote share of Congress and various Janata parties of the state over the last 2 decades, the BJP finally managed to do the unthinkable as far its concerned. The Hindi heartland party secured a simple majority in the May 2008 assembly polls and in the process installed its first government in South India. However the first 11 months of the Yedyurappa govt. have been nothing short of controversial. From the attacks on the minority institutions to the Mangalore pub incident the BJP by now must have found out that running a government in this part of the country is no child's play. Fortunately for it the opposition has failed to capitalize on such issues with both the Congress and Deve Gowda's JD(S) embroiled in intra-party issues. Congress seems to scratching around on a weak wicket and is not sure of its poll strategy in the state. In a desperate bid to win seats it has fielded several heavyweights from different parts of the state. These include S. Bangarappa(Shimoga), Verappa Moily (Chikkballapur), Margaret Alva (Uttara Kannada), C K Jaffer Sharief(Bangalore North), Mallikarjuna Kharge(Gulbarga) and Dharam Singh(Bidar). The fact that some these candidates were hardly showing any interest means that the Congress has guessed that the road to Rashtrapati Bhavan will not pass through Vidhan Soudha. Infact Ex-CM SM Krishna was offered a ticket to contest from Bangalore South but backed out in order to avoid a direct tussle with the formidable Ananth Kumar of BJP. The Congress will be lucky to retain the 8 seats it won in 2004. Congress's loss could have been JD(S)'s gain but the party seems to have taken several steps backwards over the course of the last 2 years. The electorate seems to be disillusioned with Deve Gowda's flip flops and is unlikely to back the JD(S). Crucial to note is the fact that Karnataka tends to vote differently in central and state elections with emphasis given on stable government formation at the centre. This could help the BJP even more although by the same logic the Congress might also be sporting a nervous smile. It however means bad news for the man from Mars Captain GR Gopinath who is contesting from Bangalore as an independent. If the BJP led NDA is to form a government at the centre then a rich haul from Karnataka is a must.

Seat Projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 28
BJP - 19
Cong - 8
JD(S) - 1