KERALA - God's own country takes an anti-leftward turn

All 20 seats of Kerala go to the polls tomorrow in the first phase of the 15th General elections. The Politics of Kerala is dominated by the 2 major alliances of UDF (Congress, muslim league and Kearala congress(Mani)) and LDF (alliance of the Left parties). History points to troubled times ahead for the LDF as the party in power at the state has always come a cropper in the general elections. This time though the LDF is really staring down the barrel with a strong anti-incumbency wave, infighting among the Vijayan and Achuthanandan factions and alliance woes for senior LDF partner CPM in the form of JD(S) and CPI. The JD(S) could infact play spoiler in many seats for the LDF especially in Calicut and Vadakara. The fact that a left stronghold like Vadakara is in danger of slipping out of the LDF's hands indicates the the level of anger in the electorate. The CPM didn't do itself any favours by aligning with Madani the mastermind of the Coimbatore bomb blast of 1998. This coupled with being denied a ticket to contest from Calicut turned out to be the last straw for the JD(S) which has walked out of the alliance. Congress which was wiped out in 2004 will be looking to capitalize on the LDF's woes and would probably be eyeing a repeat of the 1991 polls when it won 13 seats. It should sail through in its strongholds of Mavelikkara, Ernakulam, Mukundapuram (now Chalakkudi), Calicut and Kannur and poach seats such as Idukki and Alleppey. The Muslim league bastions of Ponani and Mallapuram(erstwhile Manjeri) will add to the UDF's tally. Congress is banking heavily on Kerala in much the same way BJP is on Karnataka. If all goes well UDF might end up with its best ever result in God's own country. Meanwhile the BJP which has never won a seat in either the Central or State elections will be hoping to break its duck here. The lotus party will definitely be a factor in Kasargod and Palakkad, but it is the constituency of Thiruvananthapuram which will give the BJP a real chance to stage an upset. Congress has fielded form UN Under-Secretary General Shashi Tharoor. Trivandrum will provide us with a fascinating battle.

Seat projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 20

UDF
Cong - 12
IUML - 2
KCM -1

LDF
CPM - 3
CPI -1

BJP - 1

*UDF - United Democratic Front
*LDF - Left Democratic Front
*CPM - Communist Party of India(Marxist)
*CPI - Communist Party of India
*IUML - Indian Union Muslim League
*KCM - Kerala Congress (Mani)