MAHARASHTRA - Battleground state #1

Predicting the results of maharashtra is like predicting the location of a needle in a haystack. There are so many factors at work in this sugarcane rich state of India. Till recently there was confusion over alliance partners and before the Congress-NCP combine and BJP- Shiv Sena group finalized seat sharing agreements. The electorate in the state seems to be highly disillusioned with the congress led government but at the same time surveys have predicted an advantage for the UPA. This is largely on the back of a jaded and faction-ridden NDA in the state. The BJP and Sena were on the verge of a split over seat-sharing disagreement but seem to have come around at the last minute. The BJP itself is beset with factions after the death of Pramod Mahajan. Bal Thackerey's old age and failing health have led to the decline of the Sena in the state. The exit of Narayan Rane and Raj Thackerey have added salt to the wounds of the Lion of Mumbai. Coming to the UPA, Sharad Pawar's revolving door policy of keeping in touch with politicians across the spectrum means that the Congress is uncomfortable with the Maratha strongman. However it also knows that a good performance in Maharashtra boost its numbers in the national scenario. The 2004 polls were a closely contested one with NDA getting 25 and UPA 23. The state is divided into 4 regions, Bombay-Thane-Konkan area, Western Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha. NDA swept Vidarbha (10 out of 11) and but lost badly in its traditional bastion of Mumbai. It is unlikely that NDA will repeat its Vidharba show this time around but will offset losses in this region with gains in Mumbai-Thane belt. Western Maharashtra (The Sugarcane belt of the state) is Pawar's stronghold and in all likelihood it should be smooth sailing for him. That leaves us with Marathwada a region that sends 8 members to the LS. If Sena-BJP combine hopes to do well in this election it must try and win as many seats as possible here. Marathwada will be the trump card for both UPA and NDA in the coming elections. Maharashtra is key to Sharad Pawar's ambition of becoming PM and the coming weeks of April will decide just where his ambitions will take him.

Seat Projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 48

Congress - 14
NCP - 11
BJP - 12
SS - 11