ORISSA - Battleground State #4

Orissa which under normal circumstances should have been an easy win for NDA has turned into the big political story of these elections. The 11-year old tie with BJP has been severed by Orissa CM Naveen's Patnaik's BJD. This combine which won 18 of the 21 seats in 2004 and 19 in 1999 would have at the very least retained a majority in both the lok sabha and the vidhan sabha (the coastal state will vote to choose a new government in the state as well) polls despite Kandhamal. Naveen who has always kept his cards close to his chest pulled the joker out of the pack when he parted ways with the BJP and stuck up a deal with Left and NCP. This was largely on the back of BJP's poor show in the municipal polls of 2008. Experience suggests that this scenario need not play itself out in the national and state elections (A case in point being Delhi where Congress won a hat-trick in the assembly elections of 2008). The BJP which has now termed Naveen a betrayer is going all out to defeat him. Enter the GOP. The congress which has been subjected to some humiliating defeats election after election in the state for the last 12 years and which has been in a moribund state has suddenly jerked out of a trance and is now banking heavily on Orissa to provide it the tonic needed to boost its national prospects. It has mobilized its cadres and is running a very aggressive campaign. The interior and southern regions of the state have already gone to the polls last Thursday while the coastal districts will be voting this coming Thursday. The former is where the BJP has clout while the latter are BJD bastions. Despite Naveen's huge popularity and his pro-development/anti-corruption agenda the BJD will probably not be able to translate it into a sweep. It has hugely underestimated the BJP's growing presence in the state and in a triangular fight BJP v BJD v Congress, BJP will erode BJD's votes thereby helping the congress. Regions such as Sundergarh, Nowrangpura, Sambhalpur and Koraput will probably go against the BJD while Bhubhaneshwar, Cuttack, Puri, Kendrapara and Bhadrak is where Naveen Patnaik will be hoping to arrest the losses. The congress is ideally placed to pick up the pieces in the BJP-BJD war. It lost several seats by a margin of less than 5% and in a 3-way fight would come out a winner in such seats. Only time will tell whether Naveen's bold gamble will pay of.

Seat Projection:

TOTAL Seats - 21
Cong - 11
BJD - 7
BJP - 3