Punjab has gone relatively unnoticed in the current elections with the more politically crucial states such as UP garnering the attention of the media. Traditionally the land of 5 rivers has seen a 2 horse race between congress and akali dal with the BJP a factor in the Hindu dominated constituencies. The BJP's alliance with the akalis has paid it rich dividends at the national level. The 2004 polls saw the alliance stitch together 11 wins out of a maximum possible 13 seats on offer. This was largely due to an anti-congress wave in the state and the nonchalant and cavalier attitude of the then chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh. A repeat of that result is highly unlikely even though the Akali which is in power is not in the news for the wrong reasons. It is interesting to note that the vote share of the congress and the akalis in last 4-5 general elections has been in 30-35% range with both contesting around 10-11 seats. However one of them has managed to secure an outright majority with the congress triumphant in '91 and '99 and the Akali-BJP combine romping home in '96, '98 and '04. A small swing of 2-3% either way can make all the difference. The BJP is a minor player in the alliance with the Akalis and in all likelihood will contest 3 seats. Gurdaspur and Amritsar should not be a problem for the party as Vinod Khanna and Navjot Sidhu's popularity will carry the day.
The NDA partners should secure a simple majority. Watch out for the BSP trying to spring a surprise from Hoshiarpur and Phillaur.
Seat Projection:-
TOTAL Seats - 13
SAD - 7
BJP - 2
Cong - 4
*SAD - Shiromani Akali Dal
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