Rajasthan is electorally a 2-party state with the congress and BJP slugging it out for top honours. Infact the BJP (erstwhile Jana Sangh) is the only party that has challenged congress in what is arguably the *GOP's strongest territory in the Hindi heartland. Since 1977 the 2 national parties have traded majorities in the general elections. The percentage of votes garnered by both the BJP and Congress has been in the 40-45% bracket except in the '04 polls where BJP secured 49% of the votes catapulting it to 21 seats and its best ever result. The desert state is highly sensitive to vote swings with a 2-3% swing either way translating into 8-10 seats changing hand. Last time around the newly sworn in Vasundhara Raje govt. of the BJP delivered a perfect result by winning 21 of the 25 seats. The boot is on the other foot now and the 3-month old congress govt. of Ashok Gehlot will be hoping to drive home the advantage of the honeymoon period. It has got its task cut out. BJP on the other hand is riddled with infighting and personality clashes with both Bhairon Singh Shekhawat and Jaswant Singh unhappy with the leadership of ex-CM Raje. It will find the going tough and despite an internal survey by the backroom boys of the shows the lotus party making ground since the assembly polls of Dec '08 it is fighting a losing battle in the state. What will give the party hope is the fact that it has traditionally performed better in the lok sabha polls vis-a-vis the vidhan sabha polls. Having said this, unless the BJP gets its divided house in order, congress should secure a simple majority in the state.
Seat Projection:-
TOTAL Seats - 25
Cong - 16
BJP - 9
*GOP - Grand Old Party
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