TAMIL NADU - Batteleground State #2

Tamil Nadu in many ways is the bellwether state of Indian elections. The winning combination here invariably goes onto capture power at the centre. Barring 1967 and 1989 this rule of thumb has held good in the lok sabha elections in the state. After being ousted from power in 1967 by the DMK the congress has never quite recovered and has been reduced to a marginal player in the state having to ally with either the DMK or the AIADMK. The arrival of parties such as PMK, MDMK and Vijaykanth's DMDK has further divided the state along casteist lines. Caste equations and alliance arithmetic is the order of the day in TN. This time too the coalition mantra will have the final say in the matter.
The allies are as such: -
Cong + DMK + regional groups
AIADMK + PMK + MDMK + Left Parties (CPM and CPI)
DMDK
BJP
The state will witness a 4-cornered contest although its the first two groupings that will dominate the show. As we approach polling day one can say that there is considerable anger at the ruling DMK over several issues like price rise, power cuts and most importantly Sri Lankan Tamil crisis. The fact that the congress party has openly declared support to the Lankan government in the ongoing war and the DMK choosing to sidestep the issue means that the alliance will suffer major reverses in atleast certain pockets of the state. CM Karunanidhi's constant flip-flops on the Lankan issue hasnt helped the alliance either. The ruling UPA will be hoping to atleast retain its strongholds in the northern and central parts of the state.
On the other side of the wall, The Jayalalitha led 3rd front group will be brandishing their knives and eagerly anticipating the arrival of the counting day. This group (If it stays together) should at the very least win a majority in the state. AIADMK is very strong in the central and southern belts while PMK will get the vanniyar votes. Vijaykanth's DMDK is making its debut this time. DMDK is a bit of an unknown commodity as far as national elections are concerned and atleast this time it will find it difficult to make the cut. Crucially though it will play spoiler in many seats. Keep an eye on this outfit. Last but not the least the BJP can at the very best try and poach the Kanyakumari seat from DMK and CPM. In a triangular contest it will hope that the minority votes are split and it can cash in on this aspect.

Seat Projection:-

TAMIL NADU + PONDICHERRY - TOTAL SEATS - 40 (39 + 1)

UPA:
Cong - 5
DMK - 9

3rd Front:
AIADMK - 18
PMK - 4
MDMK - 2
Left - 2

At the end of the day each and every one of 40 MPs from the state will be worth his weight in gold. Already there are signs of the ADMK gravitating towards the BJP. The MDMK might follow suit while the PMK keeps a revolving door policy of aligning with anyone. The post poll combination could be something altogether different.
Tamil Nadu could very well determine who the next occupant of 7 RCR will be.