HIMACHAL PRADESH - Lotus Shines

The picturesque Himalayan Kingdom sends 4 members to the lok sabha. This is one of the 7 states where there is a direct fight between Congress and BJP the others being Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Delhi. The BJP in its earlier avatar as Jana Sangh had started making inroads into the vote share in the 1960's and has emerged as one of the main players in the state.

In 2004 congress won 3 out of the 4 seats riding on the popularity of the then Congress government led by Virbhadra Singh. Expect a role reversal this time around with the Prem Kumar Dhumal led government going all out for a 100% result. The honeymoon period which generally lasts for 6 months to a year and a half should also favour the BJP which has been in power for 15 months. The Simla seat might prove to be a tough nut to crack for the BJP. The joker in the pack could be ex-cricketer Madan Lal contesting on a congress ticket from Hamirpur.

Smooth sailing for the saffron forces here.

Seat Projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 4

BJP - 3

Cong - 1

*BJP - Bharatiya Janata Party

*Congress (Cong) - Congress

JAMMU & KASHMIR - The Return of the Abdullahs

We start of with our analysis of states and union territories with that old problem spot of the Indian Union - J&K. Kashmir has always been a perennial albatross around the union and its election commission. Grenades, bullets, strikes, protests and calls for azadi have been the order of the day. However all that is changing now with new voices emerging from corners of the valley calling for change and repalcing bullet with ballot. Hopefully the state will see a new dawn marked with peace, stability and development.

The voting patterns of this state are generally along predictable lines with the Valley rooting for the kith and kin of the Lion of Kashmir (Sheikh Abdullah) and the Jammu region going the Congress way. However the emergence of the PDP has added a new dimension to the Kashmir valley. It must be said that Mufti and his daughter are more or less restricted to the Militancy prone districts of south Kashmir (Anantnag). Srinagar and northern regions of Kashmir are traditional bastions of the NC. The Jammu region which sends 2 MPs to the lok sabha was once a congress stronghold but the BJP has clearly made inroads into this region picking up both the seats in 1999. However the congress bounced back in style with a clean sweep in 2004. The recent showing of BJP in the assembly polls suggests the party is on a comeback trail. However a repeat of 1999 is unlikely. A split in seats is a likely scenario here. Watch out for the NC trying to poach a seat in the Jammu region.

Barring the sopore incident the the 4 month tenure of young Omar Abdullah has been relatively quiet. Expect the honeymoon factor to favour him in the upcoming general elections. The younger lot will be prone to throw their lot behing Omar. The lone Ladakh seat should also go the NC way.
The seat projection is as follows:-

TOTAL Seats - 6
NC - 3
PDP - 1
Cong - 1
BJP - 1

Only time will tell who comes out on top. A 3+ score for the NC will increase its bargaining power both at the centre as well as the state especially with a section of the separatists showing flexibility for dialogue.

*NC - National Conference

*PDP - People's democratic party

OPENING NOTES

Election ke din agar aap vote nahi kar rahe ho toh aap so rahe ho. With those words poll bugle was sounded out by jaagore for the common. The biggest carnival is back with the usual suspects and it promises to be a marathon slugfest. This site will take you through the 4 corners of the nation to bring you the latest from the 15th general elections as well as give you a state by state prediction of the political party's fortunes.

The purpose of this exercise is to engage the online community on the biggest democratic exercise of our times and provide a complete coverage of the opinion of the electorate.

Sit back, relax and enjoy this ride. The battle for raisina hill has just begun!!!!!