Kaun Banega PM???????

The path to 7 Race course road seems tortuous. If one is to go by the numbers in the previous post it looks tantalizingly close between the UPA and NDA with the third front a dead and buried front.

For NDA if the numbers come through to 210 they will heave a sigh of relief at having pipped UPA but they still fall short by 62. Where will they get these numbers????
The options - AIADMK, BSP, Trinamool TDP.
All the above 4 have done business with NDA in the past and should the opportunity arise with plum posts in the offing the 4 will jump board. BJP will find life very difficult with Maya, Jaya and Mamta all on board so poaching Naidu from 3rd front is an option they must be exploring with full earnest.

For UPA if the below numbers come true then they are in for a rough ride. First and foremost they must try and get Mulayam, Laloo and Paswan (4th front) back in the saddle. This will take their tally past NDAs. Then they will have to open their doors (not an easy thing to do at all!!!!!!) to the Left. Adding Naveen's BJD and PMK + MDMK will take them to the magic mark of 272. One option they must be exploring is to dump the DMK for AIADMK. There is a catch in that. Jaya will ask for the ouster of the DMK government.

The Third front it seems is an imaginary idea of those who are desperate to remove BJP and Congress from the picture. This I am afraid is not possible given the large number of MPs sent to the lok sabha by the straight fight Congress-BJP states. If at all there is a chance of a 3rd front govt. coming to power they must keep their flock together and poach partners of UPA and NDA. This will most likely be JD(U) and Sharad Pawar. Adding NC, PDP, Chiranjeevi's PRP the tally will touch 140. Outside support from Congress will do to form the government.
Who will be PM in that case? Sharad Pawar? Nithish Kumar? Naveen Patnaik? The possibilities are endless. This is the land of the dreamers.

On the whole Advani has a marginally better chance than Manmohan of becoming PM. Don't rule out a dark horse. The regional satraps hang in there. History has thrown up surprise candidates and will continue to do so.

All will be revealed on 16th.

THE BIG PICTURE - NDA:210, UPA:195, Third Front:100

At the end of that long number crunching exercise here is the sum tally that I have arrived at for the 15th General elections:-

NDA: - 210
BJP - 159
Allies - 51 (JD(U), Akali, SS, AGP, INLD, RLD, TRS*)

UPA: - 195
Congress - 151
Allies - 44 (Trinamool, DMK, JMM, AIMIM, NCP, NC)

Third Front: - 100
Members - Left, AIADMK,PMK,MDMK, TDP, JD(S), BSP, BJD

Fourth Front: - 30
Members - SP,LJP,RJD and PRP

Others: - 8

* TRS - working under the assumption that TRS has joined NDA after Ludhiana rally

DELHI - Capital in the midst of a sheila wave

It seems only natural that I end this political numbers game with Delhi, The national capital of India. Delhi has always witnessed 2-way contest between BJP and Congress. Traditionally it has been a BJP stronghold with the party winning a majority in several general elections. However since the time Sheila Dikshit took over as the CM in 1998 the city-state has witnessed a paradigm shift in favour of the Congress. In fact Ms. Dikshit is the first congress CM since Mohan Lal Sukhadia to win 3 assembly elections in a row. She is known to be very popular among the electorate of the city and is known for her pro-development image. Delhi has had a major makeover in the last decade with CNG, Metro, Flyovers changing the face of the capital. The only problem has been on the law and order front which in Delhi's case is woefully bad. Congress is in power at both the centre and state but that still doesn't seem to affect it on the surface. Delimitation will be a factor in the polls. Congress retains its hold on the Delhi but expect BJP to give it a tough fight in West Delhi and North East Delhi.

Seat projection:

TOTAL Seats - 7

Cong - 6
BJP - 1

MISC - The smaller lot

Here is my projection of the smaller but crucial states of the general elections. Total number of seats in brackets.

Chandigarh(1):
Cong - 1

Lakshwadeep(1):
Cong - 1

Tripura(2):
Left - 2

Nagaland(1):
NPF - 1

Meghalaya(2):
Cong - 1
NCP - 1

Mizoram(1):
Cong - 1

Manipur(2):
Cong - 2

Goa(2):
Cong - 1
BJP - 1

Dadra & Nagar Haveli(1):
Cong - 1

Daman & Diu(1):
BJP - 1

Sikkim(1):
SDF - 1

Andaman and Nicobar(1):
Cong - 1

UTTAR PRADESH - Battleground State #5

Perhaps no state in the Indian union holds the key to the corridors of power in Delhi the way Uttar Pradesh does. UP is witnessing a 4-cornered contest between Mulayam's SP, Mayawati's BSP, BJP and Congress. The polarization of votes along caste lines has reduced the 2 national parties to a bit player in the state and it is the SP and BSP that are the dominant players in the region. The congress which used to sweep the polls in UP with its DBM formula (dalit-muslim-brahmin) has seen its votebank going in 3 different directions (BSP,SP and BJP). During the ram mandir movement the BJP was at the height of its powers in UP and used to get anywhere between 50 and 60 seats. All that is a thing of the past with SP and BSP emerging as the 2 main choices. In 2004 the Mulayam led SP govt. preformed remarkably well grabbing 35 out of 80 seats alongwith 3 of its ally RLD. BSP managed 19 with BJP and congress finishing with 10 and 9 at the hustings. Three years later, using the Dalit-Brahmin alliance Mayawati rode to power in the state polls with a simple majority. It was a clever and cunning formula that worked to her advantage. In several constituencies she choose an upper caste candidate to woo the uppercaste folks and got the traditional backward caste votes to win the seat. A repeat of the 2007 assembly elections would give BSP around 40-45 seats. This will give mayawati a shot at the PM's post. However this is unlikely to happen as the upper caste voters seem disillusioned with mayawati and are drifting towards the BJP especially in Purvanchal and Awadh. Meanwhile Mulayam's Muslim-Yadav formula is under serious threat of exploding in his ears as the muslims seem to have taken not to kindly to his alliance with BJP rebel Kalyan Singh. In many regions of the state but especially in Awadh and western UP they are voting for Congress and BSP. Several minority leaders have left the party and have switched to Congress or BSP. This splintering of minority votes will help BJP to a large extent as the party tries to increase its tally. Varun Gandhi may not be a big draw just yet but his presence will help the party in certain areas like Rohilkand where his own seat Pilibhit is located. His cousin Rahul is trying frantically to revive the GOP in the hindi heartland with roadshows and door-to-door campaigning in several parts of the state. Nothing as yet suggests the party is on a upswing but it will be looking to atleast increase its vote share in the state. For Congress it is a long term game plan that is the order of the day. To avoid facing unreliable allies the party has to revive itself in UP. A good show in UP for both the national parties will take them closer to the 200 mark. This is not going to happen in the current polls. It is advantage Mayawati in the current polls but she wont receive a 2007 type verdict. Mulayam will lose a considerable chunk of his 35 seats while the BJP will improve its tally and will add more to NDA's kitty with ally RLD. Congress will improve its tally too.

Seat Projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 80

BSP - 26

BJP - 20
RLD - 3

SP - 19

Cong - 12

ASSAM - Congress battling anti-incumbency

Perhaps the most poll sensitive state of the Indian union, Assam has always given jitters to the EC and Security forces of the country. 2 general elections have been cancelled in the past due to heavy violence. The state has a history of violence and struggle over several issues such as Bodoland movement, AASU and ULFA and illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. The congress has been the dominant party in the state but has met resistance in the form of AGP (Asom Gana Parishad). This time the Tarun Gogoi government is facing flak over numerous security issues in the state and has to contend with the BJP-AGP alliance. It is a tough contest but the BJP-AGP alliance is marginally ahead.

Seat Projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 14
AGP - 5
BJP - 3

Cong - 6

UTTARAKHAND - Crucial seats for BJP

Uttarakhand was one of the 3 states create in 2001 and has seen both a congress and BJP govt. This time the BC Khanduri led BJP govt is placed ideally to do well and with no major issues dogging it will score a facile win.

TOTAL Seats - 5

BJP - 4
Cong - 1

WEST BENGAL - Landmark verdict in the offing

Under normal circumstances poll prediction in Bengal would have been swept under the carpet with the inevitable result. Left wins again!!! smooth ride for the Commies!!!. This time though the results from Bengal are among the most eagerly awaited ones. Bengal this time will play a crucial role in deciding the fate of all 3 fronts (UPA, NDA - if trinamool switches sides and 3rd front). The communist wall is crumbling under the weight of Nadigram and Singur and Mamta Banerjee's long realized dream could bear fruition in these elections. The well oiled communist machinery will arrest the huge losses that will hit it on account of the non-existent anti-incumbency factor. Ironically it is Rural Bengal that is going the way of the Trinamool-Congress alliance. Certain sections of the electorate will vent their anger on Trinamool over the failure of the Tata Nano project but these are far and few. Jaswant Singh and BJP's masterstroke will fetch the party the Darjeeling seat. Landmark verdict in the offing.....

Seat Projecction:-

TOTAL Seats - 42

Trinamool Cong - 15
Cong - 6

Left - 20

BJP - 1

BIHAR - Nitish on a strong wicket

Bihar has already gone to the polls so this more of an exit poll (and not opinion). Reports from ground zero suggest that Laloo Prasad Yadav's bastion is under serious threat and ex-CM and rail mantri is looking at the prospect of sitting in the opposition both at the centre as well as the state for the 1st time in 2 decades. The Nitish Kumar led NDA govt. in Bihar has got rave reviews from the media folk and is slowly but surely turning Bihar around from a impoverished and famine hit state to a state that is showing some signs of a recovery. So desperate is Laloo that he has had to align with with one-time bete noire Ram Vilas Paswan and in doing so has alienated congress which has decided to contest all 40 seats of the state. The UPA is a divided house in the cow belt region and this is playing into the hands of the NDA. Congress will be lucky to get even 1 seat in Bihar.

Seat projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 40

NDA:
BJP - 12
JD(U) - 19

4th Front:
RJD - 6
LJP - 3

JHARKHAND - Guruji and co staring down the barrel

The mineral rich state of Jharkhand has already gone to the polls and reports suggest that it is not good news for Shibu Soren and the UPA allies. Carved out of the undivided Bihar in 2001 the densly forested state has been somewhat a mystery in the indian elections. Adivasis make up nearly half the electorate giving them a big say in deciding the netas they want to see in the parliament. The only general election held after obtaining statehood in 2004 saw the the UPA alliance of Congress, JMM, Left parties and RJD sweep the polls. NDA was wiped out. However the drama that followed the 2005 assembly polls and subsequent attempts at usurping power by JMM chief Shibu Soren has greatly harmed the UPA's image thereby allowing the BJP to cash in on the votes. This time the RJD is not part of the UPA and Soren himself is smarting at the loss in the by-elections. BJP in all likelihood will score a crucial win here.

Seat Projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 14

BJP - 9

Cong - 2
JMM - 1

Others - 2

MADHYA PRADESH - Rosy scenario for Lotus

The one state where the BJP and Congress know that campaigning is hardly going to change the poll verdict is Madhya Pradesh. The saffron brigade of BJP and its chums RSS and VHP have a vice-like grip over the state's electorate. The tribal belt that runs across central India has in the last decade taken a rightward turn. Madhya Pradesh is probably the BJP's strongest turf in the entire country. From the days of Deen Dayal Upadhyay and Jana Sangh the party was always at the forefront of challenging the congress dominance. It has always been in power episodically in the state. The Shivraj Chauhan led BJP government won a second term in December assembly polls and is largely seen to be pro-development atleast by the electorate of the state. The honeymoon period is likely to favour the BJP and barring any nasty surprises the verdict should be a stroll in the park for the party. For the Congres party however the prospects are very bleak. Despite the presence of several leaders from MP the party has failed to arrest the downward slide in the region and is struggling to say the least. The result is obvious.

Seat projection:-

TOTAL SEATS - 29

BJP - 23

Cong - 6