THE PSEPHOLOGIST

Kaun Banega PM???????

2009-05-15T00:30:00.008+05:30

The path to 7 Race course road seems tortuous. If one is to go by the numbers in the previous post it looks tantalizingly close between the UPA and NDA with the third front a dead and buried front.

For NDA if the numbers come through to 210 they will heave a sigh of relief at having pipped UPA but they still fall short by 62. Where will they get these numbers????
The options - AIADMK, BSP, Trinamool TDP.
All the above 4 have done business with NDA in the past and should the opportunity arise with plum posts in the offing the 4 will jump board. BJP will find life very difficult with Maya, Jaya and Mamta all on board so poaching Naidu from 3rd front is an option they must be exploring with full earnest.

For UPA if the below numbers come true then they are in for a rough ride. First and foremost they must try and get Mulayam, Laloo and Paswan (4th front) back in the saddle. This will take their tally past NDAs. Then they will have to open their doors (not an easy thing to do at all!!!!!!) to the Left. Adding Naveen's BJD and PMK + MDMK will take them to the magic mark of 272. One option they must be exploring is to dump the DMK for AIADMK. There is a catch in that. Jaya will ask for the ouster of the DMK government.

The Third front it seems is an imaginary idea of those who are desperate to remove BJP and Congress from the picture. This I am afraid is not possible given the large number of MPs sent to the lok sabha by the straight fight Congress-BJP states. If at all there is a chance of a 3rd front govt. coming to power they must keep their flock together and poach partners of UPA and NDA. This will most likely be JD(U) and Sharad Pawar. Adding NC, PDP, Chiranjeevi's PRP the tally will touch 140. Outside support from Congress will do to form the government.
Who will be PM in that case? Sharad Pawar? Nithish Kumar? Naveen Patnaik? The possibilities are endless. This is the land of the dreamers.

On the whole Advani has a marginally better chance than Manmohan of becoming PM. Don't rule out a dark horse. The regional satraps hang in there. History has thrown up surprise candidates and will continue to do so.

All will be revealed on 16th.

THE BIG PICTURE - NDA:210, UPA:195, Third Front:100

2009-05-15T00:15:00.005+05:30

At the end of that long number crunching exercise here is the sum tally that I have arrived at for the 15th General elections:-

NDA: - 210
BJP - 159
Allies - 51 (JD(U), Akali, SS, AGP, INLD, RLD, TRS*)

UPA: - 195
Congress - 151
Allies - 44 (Trinamool, DMK, JMM, AIMIM, NCP, NC)

Third Front: - 100
Members - Left, AIADMK,PMK,MDMK, TDP, JD(S), BSP, BJD

Fourth Front: - 30
Members - SP,LJP,RJD and PRP

Others: - 8

* TRS - working under the assumption that TRS has joined NDA after Ludhiana rally

DELHI - Capital in the midst of a sheila wave

2009-05-13T21:13:00.003+05:30

It seems only natural that I end this political numbers game with Delhi, The national capital of India. Delhi has always witnessed 2-way contest between BJP and Congress. Traditionally it has been a BJP stronghold with the party winning a majority in several general elections. However since the time Sheila Dikshit took over as the CM in 1998 the city-state has witnessed a paradigm shift in favour of the Congress. In fact Ms. Dikshit is the first congress CM since Mohan Lal Sukhadia to win 3 assembly elections in a row. She is known to be very popular among the electorate of the city and is known for her pro-development image. Delhi has had a major makeover in the last decade with CNG, Metro, Flyovers changing the face of the capital. The only problem has been on the law and order front which in Delhi's case is woefully bad. Congress is in power at both the centre and state but that still doesn't seem to affect it on the surface. Delimitation will be a factor in the polls. Congress retains its hold on the Delhi but expect BJP to give it a tough fight in West Delhi and North East Delhi.

Seat projection:

TOTAL Seats - 7

Cong - 6
BJP - 1

MISC - The smaller lot

2009-05-13T21:06:00.002+05:30

Here is my projection of the smaller but crucial states of the general elections. Total number of seats in brackets.

Chandigarh(1):
Cong - 1

Lakshwadeep(1):
Cong - 1

Tripura(2):
Left - 2

Nagaland(1):
NPF - 1

Meghalaya(2):
Cong - 1
NCP - 1

Mizoram(1):
Cong - 1

Manipur(2):
Cong - 2

Goa(2):
Cong - 1
BJP - 1

Dadra & Nagar Haveli(1):
Cong - 1

Daman & Diu(1):
BJP - 1

Sikkim(1):
SDF - 1

Andaman and Nicobar(1):
Cong - 1

UTTAR PRADESH - Battleground State #5

2009-05-12T23:35:00.003+05:30

Perhaps no state in the Indian union holds the key to the corridors of power in Delhi the way Uttar Pradesh does. UP is witnessing a 4-cornered contest between Mulayam's SP, Mayawati's BSP, BJP and Congress. The polarization of votes along caste lines has reduced the 2 national parties to a bit player in the state and it is the SP and BSP that are the dominant players in the region. The congress which used to sweep the polls in UP with its DBM formula (dalit-muslim-brahmin) has seen its votebank going in 3 different directions (BSP,SP and BJP). During the ram mandir movement the BJP was at the height of its powers in UP and used to get anywhere between 50 and 60 seats. All that is a thing of the past with SP and BSP emerging as the 2 main choices. In 2004 the Mulayam led SP govt. preformed remarkably well grabbing 35 out of 80 seats alongwith 3 of its ally RLD. BSP managed 19 with BJP and congress finishing with 10 and 9 at the hustings. Three years later, using the Dalit-Brahmin alliance Mayawati rode to power in the state polls with a simple majority. It was a clever and cunning formula that worked to her advantage. In several constituencies she choose an upper caste candidate to woo the uppercaste folks and got the traditional backward caste votes to win the seat. A repeat of the 2007 assembly elections would give BSP around 40-45 seats. This will give mayawati a shot at the PM's post. However this is unlikely to happen as the upper caste voters seem disillusioned with mayawati and are drifting towards the BJP especially in Purvanchal and Awadh. Meanwhile Mulayam's Muslim-Yadav formula is under serious threat of exploding in his ears as the muslims seem to have taken not to kindly to his alliance with BJP rebel Kalyan Singh. In many regions of the state but especially in Awadh and western UP they are voting for Congress and BSP. Several minority leaders have left the party and have switched to Congress or BSP. This splintering of minority votes will help BJP to a large extent as the party tries to increase its tally. Varun Gandhi may not be a big draw just yet but his presence will help the party in certain areas like Rohilkand where his own seat Pilibhit is located. His cousin Rahul is trying frantically to revive the GOP in the hindi heartland with roadshows and door-to-door campaigning in several parts of the state. Nothing as yet suggests the party is on a upswing but it will be looking to atleast increase its vote share in the state. For Congress it is a long term game plan that is the order of the day. To avoid facing unreliable allies the party has to revive itself in UP. A good show in UP for both the national parties will take them closer to the 200 mark. This is not going to happen in the current polls. It is advantage Mayawati in the current polls but she wont receive a 2007 type verdict. Mulayam will lose a considerable chunk of his 35 seats while the BJP will improve its tally and will add more to NDA's kitty with ally RLD. Congress will improve its tally too.

Seat Projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 80

BSP - 26

BJP - 20
RLD - 3

SP - 19

Cong - 12

ASSAM - Congress battling anti-incumbency

2009-05-12T23:27:00.003+05:30

Perhaps the most poll sensitive state of the Indian union, Assam has always given jitters to the EC and Security forces of the country. 2 general elections have been cancelled in the past due to heavy violence. The state has a history of violence and struggle over several issues such as Bodoland movement, AASU and ULFA and illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. The congress has been the dominant party in the state but has met resistance in the form of AGP (Asom Gana Parishad). This time the Tarun Gogoi government is facing flak over numerous security issues in the state and has to contend with the BJP-AGP alliance. It is a tough contest but the BJP-AGP alliance is marginally ahead.

Seat Projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 14
AGP - 5
BJP - 3

Cong - 6

UTTARAKHAND - Crucial seats for BJP

2009-05-10T17:49:00.003+05:30

Uttarakhand was one of the 3 states create in 2001 and has seen both a congress and BJP govt. This time the BC Khanduri led BJP govt is placed ideally to do well and with no major issues dogging it will score a facile win.

TOTAL Seats - 5

BJP - 4
Cong - 1

WEST BENGAL - Landmark verdict in the offing

2009-05-10T17:21:00.004+05:30

Under normal circumstances poll prediction in Bengal would have been swept under the carpet with the inevitable result. Left wins again!!! smooth ride for the Commies!!!. This time though the results from Bengal are among the most eagerly awaited ones. Bengal this time will play a crucial role in deciding the fate of all 3 fronts (UPA, NDA - if trinamool switches sides and 3rd front). The communist wall is crumbling under the weight of Nadigram and Singur and Mamta Banerjee's long realized dream could bear fruition in these elections. The well oiled communist machinery will arrest the huge losses that will hit it on account of the non-existent anti-incumbency factor. Ironically it is Rural Bengal that is going the way of the Trinamool-Congress alliance. Certain sections of the electorate will vent their anger on Trinamool over the failure of the Tata Nano project but these are far and few. Jaswant Singh and BJP's masterstroke will fetch the party the Darjeeling seat. Landmark verdict in the offing.....

Seat Projecction:-

TOTAL Seats - 42

Trinamool Cong - 15
Cong - 6

Left - 20

BJP - 1

BIHAR - Nitish on a strong wicket

2009-05-09T22:46:00.004+05:30

Bihar has already gone to the polls so this more of an exit poll (and not opinion). Reports from ground zero suggest that Laloo Prasad Yadav's bastion is under serious threat and ex-CM and rail mantri is looking at the prospect of sitting in the opposition both at the centre as well as the state for the 1st time in 2 decades. The Nitish Kumar led NDA govt. in Bihar has got rave reviews from the media folk and is slowly but surely turning Bihar around from a impoverished and famine hit state to a state that is showing some signs of a recovery. So desperate is Laloo that he has had to align with with one-time bete noire Ram Vilas Paswan and in doing so has alienated congress which has decided to contest all 40 seats of the state. The UPA is a divided house in the cow belt region and this is playing into the hands of the NDA. Congress will be lucky to get even 1 seat in Bihar.

Seat projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 40

NDA:
BJP - 12
JD(U) - 19

4th Front:
RJD - 6
LJP - 3

JHARKHAND - Guruji and co staring down the barrel

2009-05-08T21:50:00.004+05:30

The mineral rich state of Jharkhand has already gone to the polls and reports suggest that it is not good news for Shibu Soren and the UPA allies. Carved out of the undivided Bihar in 2001 the densly forested state has been somewhat a mystery in the indian elections. Adivasis make up nearly half the electorate giving them a big say in deciding the netas they want to see in the parliament. The only general election held after obtaining statehood in 2004 saw the the UPA alliance of Congress, JMM, Left parties and RJD sweep the polls. NDA was wiped out. However the drama that followed the 2005 assembly polls and subsequent attempts at usurping power by JMM chief Shibu Soren has greatly harmed the UPA's image thereby allowing the BJP to cash in on the votes. This time the RJD is not part of the UPA and Soren himself is smarting at the loss in the by-elections. BJP in all likelihood will score a crucial win here.

Seat Projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 14

BJP - 9

Cong - 2
JMM - 1

Others - 2

MADHYA PRADESH - Rosy scenario for Lotus

2009-05-07T14:20:00.002+05:30

The one state where the BJP and Congress know that campaigning is hardly going to change the poll verdict is Madhya Pradesh. The saffron brigade of BJP and its chums RSS and VHP have a vice-like grip over the state's electorate. The tribal belt that runs across central India has in the last decade taken a rightward turn. Madhya Pradesh is probably the BJP's strongest turf in the entire country. From the days of Deen Dayal Upadhyay and Jana Sangh the party was always at the forefront of challenging the congress dominance. It has always been in power episodically in the state. The Shivraj Chauhan led BJP government won a second term in December assembly polls and is largely seen to be pro-development atleast by the electorate of the state. The honeymoon period is likely to favour the BJP and barring any nasty surprises the verdict should be a stroll in the park for the party. For the Congres party however the prospects are very bleak. Despite the presence of several leaders from MP the party has failed to arrest the downward slide in the region and is struggling to say the least. The result is obvious.

Seat projection:-

TOTAL SEATS - 29

BJP - 23

Cong - 6

CHHATTISGARH - looking easy for the BJP

2009-04-23T20:21:00.004+05:30

Chhattisgarh was carved out of Madhya Pradesh in 2001 and in its short stint as a state has seen 2 governments (Congress : 2001-2004 and BJP : 2004-present). The incumbent CM Raman Singh has an image as a pro-development leader and in the assembly elections in December scripted a facile win. The honeymoon period means that the BJP should not have any issues in getting a comfortable win but the saffron party must be eyeing a clean sweep. In 2004 they won 10 of the 11 seats and at the very least would want to retain that number however difficult it may be. The congress party's machinery in the state is literally non-existent. They dont have a leader to match Raman Singh. Ajit Jogi seems to vanished into thin air. All said and done if the congress picks itself up it can still win a few seats. Emulating the 04 results wont be an easy task for the BJP. It will still win hands down. A colourful contest is the one between Dilip Singh Judeo and Renu Jogi in Bilaspur.

Seat Projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 11
BJP - 9
Cong - 2

ORISSA - Battleground State #4

2009-04-23T12:42:00.005+05:30

Orissa which under normal circumstances should have been an easy win for NDA has turned into the big political story of these elections. The 11-year old tie with BJP has been severed by Orissa CM Naveen's Patnaik's BJD. This combine which won 18 of the 21 seats in 2004 and 19 in 1999 would have at the very least retained a majority in both the lok sabha and the vidhan sabha (the coastal state will vote to choose a new government in the state as well) polls despite Kandhamal. Naveen who has always kept his cards close to his chest pulled the joker out of the pack when he parted ways with the BJP and stuck up a deal with Left and NCP. This was largely on the back of BJP's poor show in the municipal polls of 2008. Experience suggests that this scenario need not play itself out in the national and state elections (A case in point being Delhi where Congress won a hat-trick in the assembly elections of 2008). The BJP which has now termed Naveen a betrayer is going all out to defeat him. Enter the GOP. The congress which has been subjected to some humiliating defeats election after election in the state for the last 12 years and which has been in a moribund state has suddenly jerked out of a trance and is now banking heavily on Orissa to provide it the tonic needed to boost its national prospects. It has mobilized its cadres and is running a very aggressive campaign. The interior and southern regions of the state have already gone to the polls last Thursday while the coastal districts will be voting this coming Thursday. The former is where the BJP has clout while the latter are BJD bastions. Despite Naveen's huge popularity and his pro-development/anti-corruption agenda the BJD will probably not be able to translate it into a sweep. It has hugely underestimated the BJP's growing presence in the state and in a triangular fight BJP v BJD v Congress, BJP will erode BJD's votes thereby helping the congress. Regions such as Sundergarh, Nowrangpura, Sambhalpur and Koraput will probably go against the BJD while Bhubhaneshwar, Cuttack, Puri, Kendrapara and Bhadrak is where Naveen Patnaik will be hoping to arrest the losses. The congress is ideally placed to pick up the pieces in the BJP-BJD war. It lost several seats by a margin of less than 5% and in a 3-way fight would come out a winner in such seats. Only time will tell whether Naveen's bold gamble will pay of.

Seat Projection:

TOTAL Seats - 21
Cong - 11
BJD - 7
BJP - 3

ANDHRA PRADESH - Batteleground State #3

2009-04-21T23:46:00.004+05:30

Andhra Pradesh sends 42 members to the lower house of parliament (The 3rd largest behind UP and Maharashtra). In terms of numbers it is a crucial state but this time it will hold the key to the locks of 7 Race Course Road especially for the so-called 3rd front. The dominant parties of the state are Congress and Chandrababu Naidu's TDP. Congress's support base comes from the Reddys while the Kammas throw in their lot with the TDP. Along with the lok sabha polls Rajasekara Reddy led Congress govt. in the state will face the electorate in the vidhan sabha elections as well. For Naidu the ongoing elections will be a test of his political survival. The state is divided into 3 regions - Telangana, Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra. The Telangana region has long felt neglected in the state's rapid development and demands of a separate state of Telangana have surfaced time and again. The congress party has always opposed such a move but the TDP has done a volte-face by stating that it will accept a separate telangana. In doing so it has gone in for an alliance with TRS (a party formed from TDP rebels over the telangana issue in 2001). The TRS contested the 2004 in alliance with Cong and swept this region of the state. Now the TDP, TRS and Left parties have joined hands for this election and atleast in the telangana region (17 seats) seem a formidable combination on paper. As far as the other 2 regions are concerned Congress is holding an upper hand though the TDP will give a tough fight. The entry of cine star chiranjeevi's PRP has added the glamour quotient to the polls. His support base stems from his Kapu community which has strong presence in east godavari districts and several parts of Rayalaseema. Chiru as he is affectionately called will be biding his time and anticipating a mid-term poll in the state assembly. For him this is a semi-final. The PRP though can seriously damage both congress and TDP especially the latter. The BJP which is going it alone has promised statehood for Telangana in 100 days if voted to power. It might well spring a few surprises in the state. Post-delimitation it will have a crack at the seats from Hyderabad and Secundarabad and other regions of Telangana alongwith parts of coastal districts such as Kakinada and Rajahmundry. Andhra Pradesh will be watched with keen eyes from all quarters.

Seat projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 42

UPA:
Cong - 18
AIMIM - 1

Third Front:
TDP - 13
TRS - 4
Left - 1

NDA:
BJP - 3

PRP - 2

TAMIL NADU - Batteleground State #2

2009-04-19T19:41:00.006+05:30

Tamil Nadu in many ways is the bellwether state of Indian elections. The winning combination here invariably goes onto capture power at the centre. Barring 1967 and 1989 this rule of thumb has held good in the lok sabha elections in the state. After being ousted from power in 1967 by the DMK the congress has never quite recovered and has been reduced to a marginal player in the state having to ally with either the DMK or the AIADMK. The arrival of parties such as PMK, MDMK and Vijaykanth's DMDK has further divided the state along casteist lines. Caste equations and alliance arithmetic is the order of the day in TN. This time too the coalition mantra will have the final say in the matter.
The allies are as such: -
Cong + DMK + regional groups
AIADMK + PMK + MDMK + Left Parties (CPM and CPI)
DMDK
BJP
The state will witness a 4-cornered contest although its the first two groupings that will dominate the show. As we approach polling day one can say that there is considerable anger at the ruling DMK over several issues like price rise, power cuts and most importantly Sri Lankan Tamil crisis. The fact that the congress party has openly declared support to the Lankan government in the ongoing war and the DMK choosing to sidestep the issue means that the alliance will suffer major reverses in atleast certain pockets of the state. CM Karunanidhi's constant flip-flops on the Lankan issue hasnt helped the alliance either. The ruling UPA will be hoping to atleast retain its strongholds in the northern and central parts of the state.
On the other side of the wall, The Jayalalitha led 3rd front group will be brandishing their knives and eagerly anticipating the arrival of the counting day. This group (If it stays together) should at the very least win a majority in the state. AIADMK is very strong in the central and southern belts while PMK will get the vanniyar votes. Vijaykanth's DMDK is making its debut this time. DMDK is a bit of an unknown commodity as far as national elections are concerned and atleast this time it will find it difficult to make the cut. Crucially though it will play spoiler in many seats. Keep an eye on this outfit. Last but not the least the BJP can at the very best try and poach the Kanyakumari seat from DMK and CPM. In a triangular contest it will hope that the minority votes are split and it can cash in on this aspect.

Seat Projection:-

TAMIL NADU + PONDICHERRY - TOTAL SEATS - 40 (39 + 1)

UPA:
Cong - 5
DMK - 9

3rd Front:
AIADMK - 18
PMK - 4
MDMK - 2
Left - 2

At the end of the day each and every one of 40 MPs from the state will be worth his weight in gold. Already there are signs of the ADMK gravitating towards the BJP. The MDMK might follow suit while the PMK keeps a revolving door policy of aligning with anyone. The post poll combination could be something altogether different.
Tamil Nadu could very well determine who the next occupant of 7 RCR will be.

POLLING - DAY 1

2009-04-18T12:13:00.004+05:30

The great Indian tamasha kicked off with 124 constituencies in 17 states going to the polls on Thursday. These included the entire state of Kerala and Chattisgarh, Vidarbha region of Maharashtra, Telangana belt of Andhra pradesh, parts of Orissa, Jharkand, Bihar, Eastern UP, Jammu and parts of the North East.
A 60% voter turnout was reported by the election commission

The EC wanted to get the naxal belt done with in the 1st phase, but despite heavy security the maoists/naxals made their presence felt with attacks in Chattisgarh, Vidrabha, Jharkand and Bihar. The naxals are perhaps the most dangerous threat to the unity of this nation and must be eliminated at all costs.

The carnival moves on with 12 states and 141 constituencies having their say in the poll process of 23rd april.

For further details check out:-
http://elections.ndtv.com/
http://ibnlive.in.com/politics/

KERALA - God's own country takes an anti-leftward turn

2009-04-15T22:21:00.008+05:30

All 20 seats of Kerala go to the polls tomorrow in the first phase of the 15th General elections. The Politics of Kerala is dominated by the 2 major alliances of UDF (Congress, muslim league and Kearala congress(Mani)) and LDF (alliance of the Left parties). History points to troubled times ahead for the LDF as the party in power at the state has always come a cropper in the general elections. This time though the LDF is really staring down the barrel with a strong anti-incumbency wave, infighting among the Vijayan and Achuthanandan factions and alliance woes for senior LDF partner CPM in the form of JD(S) and CPI. The JD(S) could infact play spoiler in many seats for the LDF especially in Calicut and Vadakara. The fact that a left stronghold like Vadakara is in danger of slipping out of the LDF's hands indicates the the level of anger in the electorate. The CPM didn't do itself any favours by aligning with Madani the mastermind of the Coimbatore bomb blast of 1998. This coupled with being denied a ticket to contest from Calicut turned out to be the last straw for the JD(S) which has walked out of the alliance. Congress which was wiped out in 2004 will be looking to capitalize on the LDF's woes and would probably be eyeing a repeat of the 1991 polls when it won 13 seats. It should sail through in its strongholds of Mavelikkara, Ernakulam, Mukundapuram (now Chalakkudi), Calicut and Kannur and poach seats such as Idukki and Alleppey. The Muslim league bastions of Ponani and Mallapuram(erstwhile Manjeri) will add to the UDF's tally. Congress is banking heavily on Kerala in much the same way BJP is on Karnataka. If all goes well UDF might end up with its best ever result in God's own country. Meanwhile the BJP which has never won a seat in either the Central or State elections will be hoping to break its duck here. The lotus party will definitely be a factor in Kasargod and Palakkad, but it is the constituency of Thiruvananthapuram which will give the BJP a real chance to stage an upset. Congress has fielded form UN Under-Secretary General Shashi Tharoor. Trivandrum will provide us with a fascinating battle.

Seat projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 20

UDF
Cong - 12
IUML - 2
KCM -1

LDF
CPM - 3
CPI -1

BJP - 1

*UDF - United Democratic Front
*LDF - Left Democratic Front
*CPM - Communist Party of India(Marxist)
*CPI - Communist Party of India
*IUML - Indian Union Muslim League
*KCM - Kerala Congress (Mani)

KARNATAKA - Encore for the BJP?

2009-04-14T23:46:00.005+05:30

Dubbed as its Gateway to the south, The BJP has always taken the coastal Indian state of Karnataka very seriously. After slowly eating into the vote share of Congress and various Janata parties of the state over the last 2 decades, the BJP finally managed to do the unthinkable as far its concerned. The Hindi heartland party secured a simple majority in the May 2008 assembly polls and in the process installed its first government in South India. However the first 11 months of the Yedyurappa govt. have been nothing short of controversial. From the attacks on the minority institutions to the Mangalore pub incident the BJP by now must have found out that running a government in this part of the country is no child's play. Fortunately for it the opposition has failed to capitalize on such issues with both the Congress and Deve Gowda's JD(S) embroiled in intra-party issues. Congress seems to scratching around on a weak wicket and is not sure of its poll strategy in the state. In a desperate bid to win seats it has fielded several heavyweights from different parts of the state. These include S. Bangarappa(Shimoga), Verappa Moily (Chikkballapur), Margaret Alva (Uttara Kannada), C K Jaffer Sharief(Bangalore North), Mallikarjuna Kharge(Gulbarga) and Dharam Singh(Bidar). The fact that some these candidates were hardly showing any interest means that the Congress has guessed that the road to Rashtrapati Bhavan will not pass through Vidhan Soudha. Infact Ex-CM SM Krishna was offered a ticket to contest from Bangalore South but backed out in order to avoid a direct tussle with the formidable Ananth Kumar of BJP. The Congress will be lucky to retain the 8 seats it won in 2004. Congress's loss could have been JD(S)'s gain but the party seems to have taken several steps backwards over the course of the last 2 years. The electorate seems to be disillusioned with Deve Gowda's flip flops and is unlikely to back the JD(S). Crucial to note is the fact that Karnataka tends to vote differently in central and state elections with emphasis given on stable government formation at the centre. This could help the BJP even more although by the same logic the Congress might also be sporting a nervous smile. It however means bad news for the man from Mars Captain GR Gopinath who is contesting from Bangalore as an independent. If the BJP led NDA is to form a government at the centre then a rich haul from Karnataka is a must.

Seat Projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 28
BJP - 19
Cong - 8
JD(S) - 1

MAHARASHTRA - Battleground state #1

2009-04-11T16:20:00.003+05:30

Predicting the results of maharashtra is like predicting the location of a needle in a haystack. There are so many factors at work in this sugarcane rich state of India. Till recently there was confusion over alliance partners and before the Congress-NCP combine and BJP- Shiv Sena group finalized seat sharing agreements. The electorate in the state seems to be highly disillusioned with the congress led government but at the same time surveys have predicted an advantage for the UPA. This is largely on the back of a jaded and faction-ridden NDA in the state. The BJP and Sena were on the verge of a split over seat-sharing disagreement but seem to have come around at the last minute. The BJP itself is beset with factions after the death of Pramod Mahajan. Bal Thackerey's old age and failing health have led to the decline of the Sena in the state. The exit of Narayan Rane and Raj Thackerey have added salt to the wounds of the Lion of Mumbai. Coming to the UPA, Sharad Pawar's revolving door policy of keeping in touch with politicians across the spectrum means that the Congress is uncomfortable with the Maratha strongman. However it also knows that a good performance in Maharashtra boost its numbers in the national scenario. The 2004 polls were a closely contested one with NDA getting 25 and UPA 23. The state is divided into 4 regions, Bombay-Thane-Konkan area, Western Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha. NDA swept Vidarbha (10 out of 11) and but lost badly in its traditional bastion of Mumbai. It is unlikely that NDA will repeat its Vidharba show this time around but will offset losses in this region with gains in Mumbai-Thane belt. Western Maharashtra (The Sugarcane belt of the state) is Pawar's stronghold and in all likelihood it should be smooth sailing for him. That leaves us with Marathwada a region that sends 8 members to the LS. If Sena-BJP combine hopes to do well in this election it must try and win as many seats as possible here. Marathwada will be the trump card for both UPA and NDA in the coming elections. Maharashtra is key to Sharad Pawar's ambition of becoming PM and the coming weeks of April will decide just where his ambitions will take him.

Seat Projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 48

Congress - 14
NCP - 11
BJP - 12
SS - 11

GUJARAT - Modi all the way

2009-04-07T22:02:00.004+05:30

Perhaps no man has dominated the scene in a single state this decade the way Narendra Damordas Modi has in Gujarat. Ever since he took charge as the CM of Gujarat in late 2001, He has been in the news for all the right and wrong reasons. While Gujarat has turned into an economic powerhouse under Modi's regime, the state has also witnessed large scale polarization of votes. As long as Modi remains at the helm he will be remembered for both the progress of Gujarat and the riots of 2002 (Both to a large extent the result of a mass hysteria campaign created by the media). Development and riots apart, Gujarat has electorally long been a BJP fortress. The party has won election after election in the last 2 decades and has a vice-like grip over the masses of the state. The riots only enhanced their strength with the majority-community fully endorsing the BJP. Though the congress party has consistently been losing to the BJP, it is still a force in the state unlike UP and Bihar where it has a token presence. It suffers from a lack of charismatic leadership and a jaded party cadre lost and directionless after a string of defeats. In the 2007 assembly polls BJP swept north and south Gujarat, as well as the Kutch and saurashtra regions. The riot torn areas of central Gujarat which the BJP swept in 2002 assembly polls went the congress way providing the GOP some solace. A repeat of the 2007 assembly elections will do nicely for the BJP (49% vote share) which will be looking to make gains in central Gujarat (PM-in-waiting LK Advani contests from Gandhinagar). Trends suggest that the results of 2004 lok sabha polls are unlikely to replicate themselves (remember BJP got just 14 out of 26 then - by its own standards in the state a very small number) and the vidhan sabha poll of 2007 is a more accurate indicator of things to come. Modi seems to have curbed the dissidents to a large extent this time around. Barring any major pre-poll incidents it looks like a walk in the park for Modi and co.

Seat Projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 26
BJP - 21
Cong - 5

RAJASTHAN - The heat is on

2009-04-05T22:07:00.005+05:30

Rajasthan is electorally a 2-party state with the congress and BJP slugging it out for top honours. Infact the BJP (erstwhile Jana Sangh) is the only party that has challenged congress in what is arguably the *GOP's strongest territory in the Hindi heartland. Since 1977 the 2 national parties have traded majorities in the general elections. The percentage of votes garnered by both the BJP and Congress has been in the 40-45% bracket except in the '04 polls where BJP secured 49% of the votes catapulting it to 21 seats and its best ever result. The desert state is highly sensitive to vote swings with a 2-3% swing either way translating into 8-10 seats changing hand. Last time around the newly sworn in Vasundhara Raje govt. of the BJP delivered a perfect result by winning 21 of the 25 seats. The boot is on the other foot now and the 3-month old congress govt. of Ashok Gehlot will be hoping to drive home the advantage of the honeymoon period. It has got its task cut out. BJP on the other hand is riddled with infighting and personality clashes with both Bhairon Singh Shekhawat and Jaswant Singh unhappy with the leadership of ex-CM Raje. It will find the going tough and despite an internal survey by the backroom boys of the shows the lotus party making ground since the assembly polls of Dec '08 it is fighting a losing battle in the state. What will give the party hope is the fact that it has traditionally performed better in the lok sabha polls vis-a-vis the vidhan sabha polls. Having said this, unless the BJP gets its divided house in order, congress should secure a simple majority in the state.

Seat Projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 25

Cong - 16

BJP - 9

*GOP - Grand Old Party

HARYANA - Keen tussle on the cards

2009-04-04T19:50:00.007+05:30

The land of the Lal's (Bansi, Bhajan and Devi) has thrown up a combination of results in the past with the congress reigning supreme on several occasions under Bansi Lal and Bhajan Lal. Devi Lal or 'tau' as he is affectionately addressed has provided the sole alternative to the congress with his INLD (Indian National Lok Dal) coming to power in the past on more than 1 occasion. His son om prakash chautala has taken over the mantle. In the 2004 polls a massive anti-incumbency against INLD government and Chautala meant that the party was wiped out with congress winning 9 out of the 10 seats and BJP securing 1. A year later congress returned to power with Bhupinder Singh Hooda being sworn in as the CM. The Hooda government has generally stayed out of trouble and this might help the congress party in the upcoming polls. However trouble could come in the form of Bhajan Lal's Haryana janhit congress (HJC) trying to play spoiler. The ex-congress CM of haryana quit the party in disgust after the high command refused to nominate him as CM to form the HJC albeit 2.5 years after the government came into power. I personally feel that Bhajan Lal will have little effect in the general elections. The BJP which has always been a minor player in the land of the jats has struck up a clever alliance with INLD and this should help both the parties in the polls. The congress has a tough game on its hands and Haryana should provide for a fascinating contest.

Seat Projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 10
Cong - 6
INLD - 2
BJP - 2

PUNJAB - Will Akalis make it?

2009-04-02T18:50:00.009+05:30

Punjab has gone relatively unnoticed in the current elections with the more politically crucial states such as UP garnering the attention of the media. Traditionally the land of 5 rivers has seen a 2 horse race between congress and akali dal with the BJP a factor in the Hindu dominated constituencies. The BJP's alliance with the akalis has paid it rich dividends at the national level. The 2004 polls saw the alliance stitch together 11 wins out of a maximum possible 13 seats on offer. This was largely due to an anti-congress wave in the state and the nonchalant and cavalier attitude of the then chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh. A repeat of that result is highly unlikely even though the Akali which is in power is not in the news for the wrong reasons. It is interesting to note that the vote share of the congress and the akalis in last 4-5 general elections has been in 30-35% range with both contesting around 10-11 seats. However one of them has managed to secure an outright majority with the congress triumphant in '91 and '99 and the Akali-BJP combine romping home in '96, '98 and '04. A small swing of 2-3% either way can make all the difference. The BJP is a minor player in the alliance with the Akalis and in all likelihood will contest 3 seats. Gurdaspur and Amritsar should not be a problem for the party as Vinod Khanna and Navjot Sidhu's popularity will carry the day.

The NDA partners should secure a simple majority. Watch out for the BSP trying to spring a surprise from Hoshiarpur and Phillaur.

Seat Projection:-
TOTAL Seats - 13
SAD - 7
BJP - 2
Cong - 4

*SAD - Shiromani Akali Dal

HIMACHAL PRADESH - Lotus Shines

2009-03-23T19:05:00.012+05:30

The picturesque Himalayan Kingdom sends 4 members to the lok sabha. This is one of the 7 states where there is a direct fight between Congress and BJP the others being Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Delhi. The BJP in its earlier avatar as Jana Sangh had started making inroads into the vote share in the 1960's and has emerged as one of the main players in the state.

In 2004 congress won 3 out of the 4 seats riding on the popularity of the then Congress government led by Virbhadra Singh. Expect a role reversal this time around with the Prem Kumar Dhumal led government going all out for a 100% result. The honeymoon period which generally lasts for 6 months to a year and a half should also favour the BJP which has been in power for 15 months. The Simla seat might prove to be a tough nut to crack for the BJP. The joker in the pack could be ex-cricketer Madan Lal contesting on a congress ticket from Hamirpur.

Smooth sailing for the saffron forces here.

Seat Projection:-

TOTAL Seats - 4

BJP - 3

Cong - 1

*BJP - Bharatiya Janata Party

*Congress (Cong) - Congress

JAMMU & KASHMIR - The Return of the Abdullahs

2009-03-22T19:14:00.007+05:30

We start of with our analysis of states and union territories with that old problem spot of the Indian Union - J&K. Kashmir has always been a perennial albatross around the union and its election commission. Grenades, bullets, strikes, protests and calls for azadi have been the order of the day. However all that is changing now with new voices emerging from corners of the valley calling for change and repalcing bullet with ballot. Hopefully the state will see a new dawn marked with peace, stability and development.

The voting patterns of this state are generally along predictable lines with the Valley rooting for the kith and kin of the Lion of Kashmir (Sheikh Abdullah) and the Jammu region going the Congress way. However the emergence of the PDP has added a new dimension to the Kashmir valley. It must be said that Mufti and his daughter are more or less restricted to the Militancy prone districts of south Kashmir (Anantnag). Srinagar and northern regions of Kashmir are traditional bastions of the NC. The Jammu region which sends 2 MPs to the lok sabha was once a congress stronghold but the BJP has clearly made inroads into this region picking up both the seats in 1999. However the congress bounced back in style with a clean sweep in 2004. The recent showing of BJP in the assembly polls suggests the party is on a comeback trail. However a repeat of 1999 is unlikely. A split in seats is a likely scenario here. Watch out for the NC trying to poach a seat in the Jammu region.

Barring the sopore incident the the 4 month tenure of young Omar Abdullah has been relatively quiet. Expect the honeymoon factor to favour him in the upcoming general elections. The younger lot will be prone to throw their lot behing Omar. The lone Ladakh seat should also go the NC way.
The seat projection is as follows:-

TOTAL Seats - 6
NC - 3
PDP - 1
Cong - 1
BJP - 1

Only time will tell who comes out on top. A 3+ score for the NC will increase its bargaining power both at the centre as well as the state especially with a section of the separatists showing flexibility for dialogue.

*NC - National Conference

*PDP - People's democratic party

OPENING NOTES

2009-03-21T20:11:00.005+05:30

Election ke din agar aap vote nahi kar rahe ho toh aap so rahe ho. With those words poll bugle was sounded out by jaagore for the common. The biggest carnival is back with the usual suspects and it promises to be a marathon slugfest. This site will take you through the 4 corners of the nation to bring you the latest from the 15th general elections as well as give you a state by state prediction of the political party's fortunes.

The purpose of this exercise is to engage the online community on the biggest democratic exercise of our times and provide a complete coverage of the opinion of the electorate.

Sit back, relax and enjoy this ride. The battle for raisina hill has just begun!!!!!